1 No discussion, interpretation, results or comments contained herein can be attributed to the U.S. Government or any of its Agencies, including the U.S. Information Agency, Office of Cuban Broadcasting, Radio Martí Program. The authors accept responsibility for any errors of omission or commission.
2 The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of Mr. Nicolás Rivero of Rivero International, Eng. José E. Lima of IPS Consulting Engineers and Mr. José (Pepe) Fanjul of Flo-Sun Corporation on the section on sugar and of Dr. Roger Betancourt of The University of Maryland for helpful advice on the growth models.
3 R.A.P. Thirlwald, "Financing Development from External Sources," Chap. 13 in Growth and Development (New York: Wiley & Sons, 1977).
4 Hollis B. Chenery and Allan Strout, "Foreign Assistance and Economic Development," in Structural Change and Development Policy, ed. Hollis B. Chenery (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1979), 388.
5 The 1957 capital depreciation in Cuba was estimated at 1.7% of the value of capital by dividing the capital depreciation rates (from the Cuban GDP estimated by the Banco Nacional de Cuba) by the 3.2 capital-output ratio characteristic of the Cuban economy during that period. (See the section on debt for an explanation of these references.) The capital depreciation charges of the current Cuban economy are highly variable, thus we have taken an average of widely variable depreciation rates to estimate a 2% capital depreciation charge as representative for the domestic sector.
6 Lourdes Tabares and Vilma Hidalgo, "Una estimación de los principales agregados macroeconómicos de Cuba," Departamento de Economía: Universidad de La Habana, (Diciembre de 1990). Quoted in Eliana Cardoso and Ann Helwege, Cuba After Communism (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992), 124.
7 Julio Carranza Valdés, "Cuba: Los Retos de la Economía," Cuadernos de Nuestra América 19 (1993): 142.
8 These capital estimates are discussed in detail in the section on Cuba's debt to Cuban exiles in José F. Alonso and Armando M. Lago, "A First Approximation of the Foreign Assistance Requirements of a Democratic Cuba," La Sociedad Económica, Bulletin 41, 9 March, 1994, London, U.K.
9 A.J. Zellner, J. Kmenta and J. Dreze, "Specification and Estimates of Production Function Models," Econometrica 34 (1966): 784-795.
10 Bruton estimates that the capital share of output in Latin America ranges from 0.40 in Argentina to 0.50 in Chile and Mexico. See: Henry J. Bruton, "Productivity Growth in Latin America," American Economic Review 52 (December, 1967): 1101.
11 Manuel Cereijo, The Cuban Economy: Blueprint for Reconstruction, (Miami, Florida: Cuban American National Foundation, 1993).
12Anuario Estadístico de Cuba, (La Habana, Cuba: Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, Selected Years 1982, 1988 and 1989).
13 Jorge Pérez-López, "Cuba's Transition to Market-Based Energy Prices" in Cuba in Transition (Miami, Florida: Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, Florida International University, 1992), 224.
14Market Outlook for Major Primary Commodities Vols. I and II, Report No. 814/92, (Washington, DC.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, October 1992).
15 Eliana Cardoso and Ann Helwege, Cuba After Communism (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1992), 124.
16Memoria 1957-1958, (La Habana, Cuba: Banco Nacional de Cuba), 141.
17 Luis Landau, "Savings Functions in Latin America" in Studies in Development Planning, ed. Hollis B. Chenery (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1971), 779-782.
18 Savings were estimated as gross investments plus exports and minus imports, as in:
St = It + (Xt -Mt)
19 Hollis B. Chenery and Allan Strout, "Foreign Assistance and Economic Development," in Structural Change and Development Policy, ed. Hollis B. Chenery (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1979), 388.
20 Julio Carranza claims that gross investments dropped 43% from 1989 to 1991. See: Julio Carranza Valdés, "Cuba: Los Retos de la Economía," Cuadernos de Nuestra América 19 (1993): 145.
21 Carmelo Mesa-Lago, "The Social Safety Net in the Two Cuban Transitions," in Cuba in Transition, (Miami, Florida: Florida International University, 1993), Table 4, page 883. Mesa-Lago's price deflator reflects the cumulative monetary surplus as percentage of the household income.
22Economically Active Population, 1950-2025, Vol 3: Latin America, (Geneva, Switzerland: International Labor Organization, 1986). See also Sergio Díaz Briquets, "Collision Course: Labor Force and Educational Trends in Cuba," Cuban Studies 23 (1993).
23Anuario Estadístico de Cuba, 1989, (La Habana, Cuba: Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, 1990), 104, 114.
24 Enrique Pérez-Marín and Eduardo Muñoz Baños, Agricultura y Alimentación en Cuba, (La Habana, Cuba: Editorial de Ciencias Sociales, 1991), 14-20, and José L. Rodríguez and George Carriazo Moreno, Erradicación de la Pobreza en Cuba (La Habana, Cuba: Editorial de Ciencias Sociales, 1990), 192-196.
25 These estimates were developed from the figures presented in Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1989 (La Habana, Cuba: Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, 1990), 82, 114.
26 Jorge F. Pérez López, The Economics of Cuban Sugar (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1991), 76.
27 Juan Herrera, Minister of Sugar, (Speech broadcast on Radio Rebelde, October 1991 for The Day of the Sugar Worker).
28 Rivero International, Database.
29Annual Energy Outlook 1993 with Projection to 2010," Report No. DOE/EIA-0383 (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy, 1993), 26.
30Petroleum Supply Monthly, Report No. DOE/EIA-0109 (93/06) (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, U.S. Department of Energy, June 1993), Appendix D, Table D2, 148.
32SICE (database), Foreign Trade Information System, General Secretariat, Organization of the American States, OEA, U.S. Imports for Consumption, (Washington, DC: OAS, 1992).
33 Oscar Almazán del Olmo, "Los derivados de la caña de azúcar: Actualidades y prespectivas en Cuba," Cuba Socialísta 31 (January-February): 51-71.
34Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 1987, (La Habana, Cuba: Comité Estatal de Estadísticas, 1998), 479.
35 No duty is applicable as a result of having qualified as member of CBI countries. At year t+15 Cuba, will be a CBI and NAFTA member. Prices were provided by Mr. B. Haigwood of Information Resources, Inc., Washington, DC.
36 Nicolás Rivero, "Cuba & Sugar: The Inseparable Alliance," (paper presented at a seminar sponsored by The Cuban American National Foundation: "Cuba's Reconstruction: Prospects for the future, held at Dirksen U.S. Senate Office Building, Washington, D.C., May 25, 1993).
37 Nicolás Rivero of Rivero International provided the conversion values used.
38 An extensive and detailed discussion of non-sugar exports is presented in José F. Alonso and Armando Lago, "A First Approximation of the Foreign Assistance Requirements of a Democratic Cuba," La Sociedad Económica, Bulletin 42, March 1994, London, UK.
39 Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, (Madrid, Spain: World Tourism Organization, Selected Years 1985-1992.)
40 See the discussion on the effects of Cuban tourism on Puerto Rico in: E. Cabarrouy and F. Cué, "Retos y Oportunidades para Puerto Rico de una Apertura de la Economía Cubana," (paper presented at the 3rd. Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy at Florida International University on August 12-14, 1993) and Reynaldo Alegría, Félix Cué and Gustavo Velez, "Normalización de Relaciones entre Cuba y Estados Unidos: Retos y Oportunidades para Puerto Rico, (San Juan, Puerto Rico: Consejo de Desarrollo Estratégico para Puerto Rico, 1992,) 58-60.
41 "Análisis Global de la Economía, Enero-Septiembre 1992" (Cuban American National Foundation: Secreto).
42 Most of the analysis of nickel export markets can be found in "Cuban Nickel: Market Analysis and Production Outlook," La Sociedad Económica, Bulletin 26, 19 January 1993, London, UK.
43 Some analysts expect a larger share for Cuban fresh citrus products in the United States. See: University of Florida and Florida Department of Citrus, "Cuba's Citrus Industry," Working Paper Series, No. 10, 23 October 1991. Also "Price Prospects for Major Primary Comodities 1990-2005," Vol II, Washington, DC. (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1991,) p. 123.
44 José A. Suárez Caabro, Cuba y su Pesca, (Miami, Florida: 1988) pp. 80-81.
45 Arturo Pino Navarro, Cultivo del Café, Su Futuro, in Desarrollo Agrícola de Cuba," (Miami, Florida: Colegio de Ingenieros Agronomos y Azucareros, 1992), pp.173-174.
46 Napoleón Padilla, El tabaco en el futuro de Cuba, in Desarrollo Agrícola de Cuba, Miami, Florida: Colegio de Ingenieros Agronomos y Azucareros, 1992, pp.173-174.
47 A more extensive discussion of foreign capital flows appears in José F. Alonso and Armando M. Lago, "A First Approximation of the Foreign Assistance Requirements of a Democratic Cuba," La Sociedad Económica, Bulletin 42, March 1992, London, UK.
48 "Economic Benefits to Castro's Government from Humanitarian Provisions of the U.S. Embargo," (Cuban American National Foundation, undated mimeo,) p.10.
49 U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, Washington, D.C.: Department of Commerce, August 1961, p. 22
50 1992 Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, Washington, DC.: International Monetary Fund, 1993.
51 1992 Annual Report, Washington, DC.: The Inter-American Development Bank, 1993, p.12.
52 Annual Report 1992, Washington, DC.: The World Bank, 1993, p.117.
53 Joaquín P. Pujol, "Membership Requirements in the IMF: Possible Implications for Cuba, " in Cuba in Transition, Miami, Florida International University, Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, 1991, pp. 91-103.
54 Alfredo Blanco Con, "Comercio Exterior y Movimientos Cambiarios," Revista Cuba Económica, Año II, No. 3, Octubre 1991-Marzo 1992) p.103.
55 "To Whom We Have Loaned: Figures Released by Finance Ministry show 61 Countries Owe USSR 85.6 billion Rubles (Cuba Tops List)," from Izvestia cited in Current Digest of the Soviet Press, 42, No.9, 4 April, 1990, p.9.
56 See: Ralph J. Galliano, "The Resolution of U.S.-Cuba Claims: Toward a Democratic, Free Market, Post Castro Cuba," Washington, DC. The Selous Foundation's Institute for U.S. Cuba Relations, 20 May, 1993. pp. 3-4 & 7.
57 See: José F. Alonso and Armando M. Lago, "A First Approximation of the Foreign Assistance Requirements of a Democratic Cuba," La Sociedad Económica, Bulletin No. 42, March, 1993, London, U.K.
58Psychiatry Under Tyranny: An Assessment of Political Abuse of Romanian Psychiatry During the Ceasescu Years, Amsterdam: The Hague, 1992, p.14.
59 In most instances, the current value in dollars (at 60-100 pesos per U.S. dollar) of the confiscated property is less than their original dollar values when confiscated in 1960 and 1961; argument which suggests that it is less costly to the Cuban government to return the confiscated property to the previous owners (except perhaps the property ceded to a current owner, as is the case of housing) than to indemnify them at the current exchange rate.
60 Our reviewer at the ASCE annual meetings, Professor Luis Locay points out that, to the extent that compensation demonstrates the new regime's commitment to private property, compensation could actually increase foreign investment in Cuba, including that from exiles. We concur with this view, but we are unable to quantify it with any precision.
61 B.W. Dyer & Company, DYERGRAM, #14-93, (September 1, 1993): 2. Also "Dynamics of Tomorrow's U.S. Sweetener Industry: Opportunities and Challenges," (Speech by Dr. Sachinvala at the Annual International Sweetener Symposium, Lake Tahoe, California, Mid-August 1993).
62 José E. Lima, IPS Consulting Engineers, New Orleans, Louisiana.