Populist candidate Abdala Bucaram won the run-off election for the presidency
of Ecuador on July 7, defeating pro-business Social Christian Party candidate
Jaime Nebot. Based on EXIT POLLS, Bucaram won by 54.4% to Nebot's 45.6% of
the valid vote. However, 29.1% of registered voters either did not show up to
vote (even though voting is legally required for literate adults in Ecuador)
or failed to appear at the correct polling station. Of the total vote,
Bucaram won 47.7% to Nebot's 39.9%, with 12.4% null and blank ballots.
Bucaram won in every region (Costa, Sierra, and Oriente). By province,
Bucaram won everywhere except in Guayas and Pichincha, provinces
dominated by the major cities of Guayaquil and Quito. Nebot won in Guayas
with 56% of the valid vote, while the candidates split Pichincha 50-50.
Bucaram's strength was in the rural and more marginal areas of the country:
he won by over 2-1 margins in the heavily indigenous provinces of Cotopaxi and
Chimborazo and the provinces of the Amazon basin; his margin of victory was
3-1 in the African-Ecuadorian province of Esmeraldas on the north coast.
Abdala Bucaram comes from a Guayaquil family of Lebanese origin that has
specialized in populist politics for 40 years. He is the nephew of Assad
Bucaram, the Guayaquil populist leader of the 1960's and 1970's, and the
brother-in-law of Jaime Roldos, the first civilian president following the
withdraw of the military in 1979. Bucaram previously served as Guayas police
intendent under Roldos and was elected mayor of Guayaquil in 1984. He was
driven from office by corruption scandals in 1985, but returned to come in
second in the 1988 presidential race. Bucaram's sister, Elsa Bucaram, was
mayor of Guayaquil from 1988 to 1991, but went into exile due to avoid
prosecution for corruption. His brothers Jacobo and Santiago were elected
to congress in May, although another brother, Adolfo, lost the race for
prefect of Guayas Province to the Social Christian candidate.
Bucaram campaigned against "oligarchs" and "monopolists," promising to
be the "force of the poor" while supporting "true capitalism." Bucaram
benefited from popular disatisfaction with the failure of the neoliberal
reforms of President Sixto Duran-Ballen to improve the standard of living
of most Ecuadorians. Although he was clearly identified with Guayaquil
business interests, Nebot's campaign was also based on populist promises
to improve the lot of the poor.
David Nolan
Quito, Ecuador
July 8, 1996