-DATE- 19910117 -YEAR- 1991 -DOCUMENT_TYPE- -AUTHOR- -HEADLINE- Castro Expresses `Deep Bitterness' Over War -PLACE- CARIBBEAN / Cuba -SOURCE- Havana Tele Rebelde and Cuba Vision Networks -REPORT_NBR- FBIS-LAT-91-012 -REPORT_DATE- 19910117 -HEADER- BRS Assigned Document Number: 000000941 Report Type: Daily Report AFS Number: FL1701050791 Report Number: FBIS-LAT-91-012 Report Date: 17 Jan 91 Report Series: Daily Report Start Page: 2 Report Division: CARIBBEAN End Page: 3 Report Subdivision: Cuba AG File Flag: Classification: UNCLASSIFIED Language: Spanish Document Date: 17 Jan 91 Report Volume: Thursday Vol VI No 012 Dissemination: City/Source of Document: Havana Tele Rebelde and Cuba Vision Networks Report Name: Latin America Headline: Castro Expresses `Deep Bitterness' Over War Subheadline: Comments on Impact on Country Author(s): President Fidel Castro on hostilities beginning in the Persian Gulf during a news conference on the Pan-American Games at Havana's Habana Libre Hotel on 16 January--recorded] Source Line: FL1701050791 Havana Tele Rebelde and Cuba Vision Networks in Spanish 0423 GMT 17 Jan 91 Subslug: [Remarks made by President Fidel Castro on hostilities beginning in the Persian Gulf during a news conference on the Pan-American Games at Havana's Habana Libre Hotel on 16 January--recorded] -TEXT- FULL TEXT OF ARTICLE: 1. [Remarks made by President Fidel Castro on hostilities beginning in the Persian Gulf during a news conference on the Pan-American Games at Havana's Habana Libre Hotel on 16 January--recorded] 2. [Text] It will have both a direct and an indirect effect. Cuba will not experience a direct impact because it does not have trade ties with Iraq. Cuba does not obtain fuel shipments from Iraq. Cuban-Iraqi ties are limited to old diplomatic ties, old friendship ties similar to the ones Cuba maintains with many Middle East countries. 3. In addition, there a several Cuban assistants, mainly nurses, working in Iraq. There are about 200 Cuban health workers there, many of them are specialized nurses. They work in different civilian hospitals. They did not want to return to Cuba despite the threat of war because they thought it was their duty to assist their patients. We agreed with them because doctors and nurses are needed the most during times of war. 4. There have even been some contacts with international humanitarian organizations. They have expressed interest in the humanitarian aid that the Cuban medical personnel may render during and after the war. This is the essence of Cuban-Iraqi ties. We have no economic ties with Iraq. 5. When oil prices rise from $14 to $30 and to over $30, however, it does create problems to hundreds [as heard] of countries, to the great majority of non-producing oil countries, to oil-importing countries. 6. This also makes all sorts of goods more expensive. All oil byproducts will be more expensive: high-intensity, low-intensity polyethylene, fertilizers. Hundreds of thousands of oil byproducts will get more expensive. All countries consume these products. Therefore, countries are left without money because oil and fuel are top-priority products. This also has an affect on world trade, and the trade of all kinds of food staples. There is also less demand for Third World exports and prices drop. In view of this, exports decrease and so do the exports of Third World countries; Cuban exports as well. 7. If, however, at a given time, we are in the need for an additional amount of fuel, and if we are forced to resort to the international market to purchase it, we will find high prices. Consequently, we will be forced to buy fuel oils, or some type of fuels--like diesel oil--to achieve a balance of supplies. 8. In 1990, Cuba had 3 million tons less of fuel, that is, we had about 25 percent less fuel than the previous year. In view of this, we had to adopt special measures to confront this situation. 9. This was caused because of the difficulties the Soviet Union has experienced in guaranteeing the historical oil supplies. This occurred in spite of the Soviet Union's willingness and desire to resolve this problem. Cuba has and continues to receive its main supplies from the Soviet Union. Therefore, any deficit that may take place will force us to make even greater sacrifices because we will have no other source of supplies. 10. The first impact of this war will most likely be that tomorrow oil prices will jump to $40, but depending on how this war develops, no one knows whether this price may jump to $50, $60, or $70. 11. All sorts of estimates have been made. Some state that oil prices will reach $100. The only certain thing is that no one can or will know this. We can be certain that there will indeed be a considerable hike in oil prices. 12. Therefore, the impact I have already mentioned will be many-fold. Moreover, if this war become a more complicated issue-- although, no one can ascertain this to be a fact.... [changes thought] Each side has made its own plans. It is obvious that the United States believes this will be a fast and brief war, but the other side is planning a long and bitter resistance. Nevertheless, at this time no one knows how events will develop, but there is a possibility that this war will be complicated. Therefore, it will have an impact not only on Third World countries but on the entire world economy which when the Gulf crisis broke out was at the beginning of a recession. 13. It is well-known that the U.S. economy is going head on into a recession. This situation, which naturally affects all countries of the world to a greater or lesser degree-- some more than others--will also affect us greatly. Anything that goes wrong in the world economy affects all countries except those which may now have the privilege of receiving fabulous amounts of money at the expense of the blood that is being shed in those far-away deserts. -END-